Modern States WILL BE FORGOTTEN

They will not be remembered as actors. If they're lucky, they will be remembered only as background geography.

This isn't pessimism. Just brutal realism.

First, let me reframe what "forgotten" actually means in history.

"Forgotten" does not mean erased, unknown, or unnamed. Rather, it means that it gets no dedicated chapters, gets mentioned accidentally, or is sometimes used as case studies to explain larger patterns.

Modern states feel eternal now, but that's only an illusion — and I will prove it to you.

How many of you have heard of:

• Duchy of Masovia (1138 - 1526)
• Principality of Volhynia (987 - 1452)
• Duchy of Savoy (1416 - 1847)
• Duchy of Brittany (939 - 1547)
• County of Nassau (1125 - 1806)
• County of Nevers (990? - 1659)
• Kingdom of Benin (1180 - 1897)
• Mali Empire (1226 - 1610)
• Khwarazmian Empire (1077- 1241)
• Mughal Empire (1526 - 1857)

Some of you might recognize one or two of those names, but:

1) Can you name its founders?

2) Can you point their location on the map?

3) Do you know what they produced, exported, invented, etc?

4) Did they fight any wars, or were they peaceful?

5) Were they prosperous, or poor?

Most people (including historians) know nothing about these states, and that is despite the fact that they were NOT obscure at the time; they lasted centuries, issued laws, and had their own courts, dynasties, and economies. Additionally, these states DID hold a lot of influence over their local regions and influenced events.

And the most ironic thing is that they existed only centuries ago, and that amount of time means nothing in the grand scheme of history. Centuries! Not even a thousand years!

They became forgotten simply because they lost control of the narrative; they stopped issuing laws, were absorbed into larger states (e.g. Duchy of Savoy -> modern France and Italy), and as a result, became administratively silent. Their records stopped.

So today, the Duchy of Masovia is remembered as "early Poland", and the Khwarizmian Empire as "that one country conquered by the Mongols". They became a phase of another "more important" polity. And that more important polity either erased their history, or simply did not take care to preserve it, sending them into the realm of obscurity and irrelevance.

What makes you think modern states will be any different?

Modern States (237 countries)

You might think that current world events are eternal, but that's only because you are swimming in them. Deep history won't care about:

• Turkish Coup Attempt (2016)
• Coronavirus Pandemic (2020 - 2022)
• Russo-Ukrainian War (2022 - 20xx)
• TikTok controversies (2020 - Now)
• "AI revolution", e.g. ChatGPT (2018 - Now)

Unless something changes the world in unrecognizable ways, or destabilizes the world (e.g. World Wars), there is no chance that it will get remembered for longer than 10-20 years. After that, it becomes historical weather. Similar to how VR was expected to change the world not five minutes ago. As of 2026, nobody even knows what a "VR" is anymore.

Just like the aforementioned Duchies, Counties, and even Empires that got almost entirely forgotten, our modern states will not stand the test of time. Yes, some of them (USA, China, Russia, India, etc) dominate world events and are actively shaping the trajectory of our entire world. These big players MIGHT become footnotes and be mentioned briefly, for example:

"Russia fought a number of small border conflicts in the years 1900—2050."

"China and United States disagreed over a number of islands and peninsulas."

"India was the wildcard on the political arena, but ultimately chose neutrality."

Nothing beyond that. If even that.

Every other state, no matter how special or unique it might seem NOW, will not appear special or unique unless it preserves its history and future civilizations care enough to read it. But if they get absorbed by larger states? They will lose their narrative continuity and disappear from history — just like the Kingdom of Granada (1230 - 1492) or Electorate of Saxony (1356 - 1806).

France? Most likely forgotten if the European Union becomes a federation or a fully centralized state.

The United States? If they continue to exist in one form or another, they will be a historical curiosity. Otherwise, forgotten entirely.

Egypt? Will definitely be remembered, but only for its Ancient predecessor (3100BCE - 30BCE). Modern Egypt will enter history as "one of the eras" of a much bigger, more ancient civilization.

Peru, Kongo, Iran, Thailand, Italy? Forgotten completely UNLESS they do something extraordinary (they probably won't).

If I had to guess, China is the only state that can survive historical purges intact. Apart from Egypt, it's the only modern state that represents an Ancient civilization with rich history and significance. But that is only assuming it doesn't fragment or gets conquered by someone else (which has almost happened on a few occasions). If China ever disappears, its Ancient civilizations will be mere curiosities, and modern China will vanish from memory.

On reflection, even modern giants like China or USA can't survive indefinitely. They can MAYBE survive a tad longer than everyone else. But not forever. Someone else will sooner or later overshadow them, and their "achievements" will not seem important enough to warrant a chapter in a history book.

How many of you know the names of all the Greek city states during the Bronze Age? You might know one or two — Athens, Sparta, etc, — but you definitely don't know all of them.

How many of you know all the Italian states that came together to form the Roman Republic, which would later go on to become the Roman Empire? Chances are, you don't even know what I'm talking about. All you've ever heard of was THE Roman Empire. Not dozens of tiny Italian states that merged into a larger one.

The reaper always comes to collect. No state is eternal, no matter how important it seems to you now.

Modern Leaders Will Almost Certainly Be Forgotten

This is not even up for debate.

How many Egyptian Pharaohs can you name? One? Two? Very few people can name more than two, even though they ruled over an ancient civilization and have been studied extensively. The pyramids, sphinx, hieroglyphic writing, papyrus, various innovations in science and technology... None of these achievements secured them a place in the conscious memory of today.

The most well-known Pharaoh is Cleopatra, but even she is remembered only as a myth, and only because she was involved with Julius Caesar. 

Let's try this again:

How many Roman Emperors can you name? Most people can name a few, some can't name any apart from Julius Caesar. And just like Cleopatra, Julius Caesar is remembered as a mythologized version of himself. We don't even know how Caesar looked, but his larger-than-life (and somewhat exaggerated) deeds secured him a solid place in history.

What about various Chinese Emperors? How many can you name? If you're from Asia, you might be able to name a few. But if you're not Asian, you probably can't name any. You might be able to name entire dynasties (e.g. the Ming Dynasty), but you'd know nothing about them — not even the time periods they ruled.

These examples illustrate that even the greatest, most important leaders fade into obscurity once enough time has passed.

But the time needed to be forgotten isn't thousands of years. It's not even hundreds.

Brilliance Cannot Save You

For example:

Emperor Taizong (626-649AD) of the Tang dynasty was a military and administrative genius. He is considered one of the greatest Chinese emperors for his achievements and making China prosperous. Despite all his achievements, he is basically forgotten.

Qutuz (~1250AD) was recognized for his pivotal role in defeating the Mongols in 1260 at Ain Jalut. This was a critical turning point in history, marking the end of Mongol invincibility. He proved that the once unstoppable Mongols could be militarily halted, and became known across the Islamic World as its defender.

Abbas the Great (1587-1629) was the most important ruler in Iranian history. He earned his title by reforming and modernizing his country. He was a skilled strategist, diplomat, and trader. It was him who ushered in a golden age for Iran.

Frederick the Great (1740-1786) transformed a small Kingdom of Prussia into a major European power. He famously reformed the Prussian military and won impossible wars through his military genius. He further developed his country's economy, law, and society, laying the groundwork for future German Unification in 1871. He is also the man admired by Adolf Hitler who attempted to emulate him.

These historical leaders were some of the most important. And even they are largely unknown.

Most leaders in history were not as brilliant and did not earn their place in history either. And I am not even talking about kings reigning hundreds of years in the past. Decades is more than enough to be forgotten.

How many people can name more than a few American Presidents? More than a few European monarchs? At least one African King?

A few Americans could boast of knowledge of their Presidents. But if America disappears — and it almost certainly will — that knowledge will die with it. Suddenly, no American President is important enough to be remembered for his own existence.

Think back to the kingdoms and empires I mentioned in the first section. How many of you can name even one ruler of any of those states?

One. I'm not asking for two or more. Only one name.

...

Nobody can name even one. Nobody knows what these states were or who ruled them.

And modern states — with all their seemingly "controversial" and "important" heads of states — will lie to rest in the same graveyard of forgotten empires, kings, and lords that nobody has ever heard of.

Because they are not unique and haven't done anything worthy of being remembered.