Universal Basic Income — Dystopian Future

UBI — Universal Basic Income

Social elites and states are likely to provide the masses with UBI at some point in the future, BUT this will not be done out of concern for these people or a desire to provide them with a good quality of life.

No state in human history has ever cared about its citizens.

They might calculate that, at some point, giving their citizens just enough will keep them docile and prevent social unrest. Frame it as generosity, and they will accept it as generosity.

Elites will continue to live in luxury and control most worldly resources and power. Peasants might get a tiny share — just enough to shift the calculus from open rebellion to quiet compliance — but the elites' hold on power will remain.

From personal experience, most people will obey for scraps. And even turn on each other if the other person disobeys the "generous" elites.

Scraps plus feel-good ideologies is enough to shift the calculus for the vast majority of people. It's how modern states are possible at all; inequality has never been greater in human history, but where small differences caused massive rebellions in the past, modern humans are content with being massively outpowered and dominated, because they have scraps while believing themselves to be "lucky". Sprinkle some useful myths and ideologies on top — to distort their view of reality, — and they will never question the current arrangement.

And if there's one thing that motivates people: it's emotions. Not logic, not foresight. Emotions.

UBI could spawn a number of ideologies that "prove" that the state is actually a benevolent entity, and that's why it deserves our loyalty. The idea of "benevolence" is one that people love and will cling to, no matter what.

Because when the state actually gives you more than any state that came before it, it becomes really hard to argue that the current one is actually more oppressive than the previous state.

Obedience will be easier and get you materially rewarded. Resistance for no apparent reward + punishment? Most people will choose the easier option.

Short-Termism vs Long-Termism

Obeying a UBI-providing entity now gets you rewarded for the rest of your life. But it introduces invisible costs for future generations that are hard to put your finger on. And that's why they're easier to ignore and pretend they'll never happen. Even if they know they will.

Disobeying a UBI-providing entity and calling it out for trying to distract you from their oppressive, dystopian plans? That will earn you no rewards and no allies. Future generations might benefit from your resistance, yes, but you will never be able to see it and confirm that your actions even had an impact. Most importantly, you will get nothing and might even be punished. This option is harder, and most people will never do that.

Most slaves around you are selfish, short-term thinkers. That's just the reality on the ground. The mathematically rational choice is to get as many benefits as you can now and let someone else deal with the long-term consequences of your comfortable actions.

That's what most people will do. That's how they think.

And why it's the only rational choice for those optimizing for short-term, self-serving goals.

Scratch that. Forget about gain.

Resistance begets punishment

In a UBI-reality, everyone gets something. Your resistance seems irrational to everyone around you because you are forfeiting that something, and are getting punished for nothing.

People believe what is convenient to believe; in this UBI-reality, acknowledging that the elites are trying to create a dystopian reality feels inconvenient. The conclusion of this type of thinking is the need to reject all your conveniences and risk everything for the sake of an imaginary goal.

It's much easier to dismiss evidence against your elite-master when that same elite-master gives you scraps and asks you for nothing but your quiet compliance.

Modern humans already do this. And their elite-masters aren't even giving them anything real. This will only get worse in a UBI-reality — and I suspect the elites know that. Why else would they use this buzzword in public speeches?

Somebody Will Always Be On Top

And that person will control the narrative and all the resources. Modern states and institutions already control the hearts and minds of its slave-subjects. Not to mention the enforcement mechanism; those who have the resources, also have the monopoly on violence and enforcement.

Wait for these entities to accumulate so many resources, they can actually start giving away freebies. There is nothing that slaves won't do for them — even if it destroys them in the long-run.

Even if they KNOW it will destroy them.

Because in the moment, the scraps "generously" granted to them by the elites will feel like proof of their worthiness and benevolence.

(Benevolence to me = objective benevolence. This is how people determine who is "good" and "bad")

Dividing slaves will be even easier than it is today — and it's already easy, even with the primitive mind-control methods, such as mass media and repetition.

Mind-Control & Brainwashing

Mind-control methods will become more sophisticated as time goes on. And because slaves will trust their elite-masters even more — what with free food and entertainment delivered directly to your doorstep, — brainwashing them will never have been easier.

You won't even need propaganda to dupe people any further, when cheap bribes become a valid subsidy with which to buy their misplaced loyalty.

But I still think they will invest in propaganda regardless. Just to be sure no counter-propaganda springs up and offers them a united front. I don't know what future propaganda will have in store, but I know it will be more wicked than its modern ancestor.

Look: modern people know that mass media are full of lies. They know that and talk about it.

This isn't a tin-hat conspiracy. This is common knowledge.

And they STILL continue to trust the information that originates in these mass media.

When people TRUST the information source, they drop their guards and are perfect targets for brainwashing.

BECAUSE they trust the source.

You see, sophisticated mind-control or not, a person can do a lot to guard themselves against it. If they know they are a target. Because that breeds distrust and emotional walls.

Give people UBI, and their distrust and walls will evaporate; they will trust you — the source — more than their own eyes and ears.

You DON'T need to understand mind-control better; give people UBI, and the existing version of propaganda will be magnitudes more effective. Because the baseline level of trust is what makes any propaganda machine effective at all.

UBI-less modern states have to manufacture this feeling of trust with propaganda and repetition from scratch. They understand it and mobilize their energies and resources for that very purpose.

They give their slaves nothing real, oppress them, exploit them... And people STILL trust them. Because there are other, cheaper ways to manufacture trust than giving your subjects something real; ideologies? Enemies abroad? Historical lies? They don't need to generate love for the state and its institutions; they evoke a scant feeling of trust — and that is ENOUGH.

Imagine the hypothetical future state that actually gives its subjects something tangible. Their loyalty will be REAL and GUARANTEED. Their trust IMPLICIT and ABSOLUTE.

Those in control of these states will have unprecedented power at their fingertips. And human nature suggests this power will NOT be used for the greater good.

(Elite good, yes. The greater good, no)

Abuse Will Be Celebrated

Even today, most people fail to recognize their shared interests, and often celebrate when another slave in their exact position gets persecuted by the same state that oppresses them both.

NO STATE gives anything real to its citizens. There are privileged commoners, yes. But most people are anything but privileged.

Do not let anyone fool you. Most people do not benefit from their states. Their states give them nothing real. Anyone who claims otherwise is trying to sell you something.

And these people are, paradoxically, the most susceptible to state propaganda and political ideologies that divide them, and keep them fighting one another; they fail to recognize their shared interests, so they squabble.

The people who benefit least often defend their states the most! This paradox is very, very real. It doesn't make sense, but that's the unfortunate reality; emotional needs can override even the most sensible misgivings.

(Why people with the least to gain trust their states the most is a different subject. It doesn't quite belong here. In short: emotional needs are the core reason)

Modern elites have never had it better than their ancestors. Future elites who institute UBI? Another unprecedented level of power.

But what is this abuse that I mentioned? How do slaves celebrate when another slave gets abused by the elites? What am I even saying?

There are hundreds of examples. I will show you only one:

Here's the example: A simple act of shoplifting and the ensuing criminal record will have dire social consequences for a person's life. Even something as simple and low-harm will have you branded for the rest of your life and restrict your opportunities and rights in society.

The irony?

No single person owns a supermarket. Those who own small shops and have their wares stolen never receive the protection of their state. Therefore, the only shoplifters who are "caught" are those who target corporate-owned — or, rather, elite-owned — establishments.

The same slaves who don't even own one supermarket among themselves, will persecute another fellow slave just because their oppressive state labelled him something bad. They will ask no questions, consider no nuance, they won't even demand to see evidence!

A state labels somebody = everyone condemns him by default.

Criminal records are a powerful ideological weapon that keeps modern slaves divided and fighting each other.

And the best part?

It's not about what you did — but about who you were at the time you did the thing. This is why a CEO fraudster gets "second chances" and book deals, meanwhile a low-level offender is tainted for life.

One example of slaves suppressing one another.

(There are more, but really, this isn't the post for this topic)

This is why oppressive elites who, in the future, give their slaves some basic UBI — one that will distract them and entertain them — WILL HAVE THESE SLAVES' COMPLETE OBEDIENCE AND IMPLICIT TRUST.

No crime is too great when it's "my side" who commits them. And if elites give me stuff, it proves that they really are "my side" — because if they weren't, they wouldn't give me the stuff.

That's how most people will interpret this new reality. It's how they're already interpreting it. It's why I think this is the direction things are going.

If elites can hijack their slaves' tribal instinct, and position themselves as "one of them", the slaves will worship and adore them.

Persecuting individual, disobedient slaves? The elites will get away with it — even more than they already do.

Your fellow slaves will see to it. You mark my words.

Productivity Will Increase — Marginally

Most people will not take advantage of UBI and use their time productively.

It is far more likely that people will use it on pleasure, entertainment, and distraction.

Very few people can be expected to become inventors the way various futuristic predictions claim (or hope) they will.

FIRSTLY, UBI is just basic income. Just enough to keep people alive and distracted.

Innovation is expensive. UBI is not enough to facilitate anything groundbreaking. It just isn't.

SECONDLY, I think it's rather optimistic to expect a full UBI. What is much more likely, I think, is 30-60% of UBI because it's cheaper, gives the elites plausible deniability, and still buys them their slaves' implicit trust and loyalty.

If an average slave needs 1,000 coins to survive, and the state gives him 300-600 coins per month, that is already more than any other historical state has given him.

Not quite the UBI the elites of today are promising, but it doesn't have to be. It just has to be better than the alternatives — and a partial UBI would more than cross that threshold.

THIRDLY, wealthy humans have historically used their wealth as a status symbol. There is no reason to believe human nature is different between the rich and the poor of today.

Most people are not selfless, full stop.

The poor of today, even when given access to unlimited resources, would not spend that wealth responsibly, altruistically, or in a way that benefits humanity as a whole.

They would gloat instead.

Some historical aristocrats have indeed invested in better infrastructure, megaprojects, improved their states, etc. Some have even become patrons.

But most didn't. And you cannot bank your future on statistically improbable outcomes. It's gambling.

No reason to think modern people would be any different. UBI or not.

FOURTHLY, some people will inevitably be incentivized to do nothing at all.

This is a dangerous and overblown argument that present-day elites use to justify hierarchies and inequality. I am not promoting this mendacious narrative (!)

But it is a fact that the natural tendency for all organisms is to do nothing at all and conserve energy.

The moment humanity enters some mythical age of "abundance", the incentives change from forced labour (to buy survival) to no labour at all (because why would you do anything if you don't have to).

BUT I am not saying that modern humans are productive. They aren't. They are exploited for the benefit of the few at the top. The word "productive" is actually a prostitute roleplaying for your emotional pleasure; exploitation dressed up as productivity to make you feel better about your pointless sacrifice. That is the true nature of our modern world.

I do not wish this post to be used as an argument in favour of the present-day hierarchies and power structures. That is not my intention.

Back to the topic of people doing nothing

Naturally, UBI has never actually been tested in the real world. Not on a civilizational scale, at least.

So, many hopeful individuals could say, I don't actually know what I'm talking about. I could be completely wrong and have no right to make assertions like that.

But history doesn't fill me with confidence. When people have no reason to do anything... they often don't do anything.

Ancien régime aristocracy is the best example of what I am talking about. Modern aristocracy is yet another.

Organisms need an external reason to do anything at all. I doubt UBI and the ability to do nothing at all will be that reason.

(But perhaps humans have some kind of inner drive that would keep them active even with an option to do nothing at all? Only time will tell)

FIFTHLY, future elites will be more incentivized than ever to entrench their position by any means necessary.

The Sword of Damocles is an ancient tale, but it illustrates what happens to those who possess the wealth — and power — that everyone around them lusts after.

Not the greatest metaphor, I'll admit. Modern elites are richer than anyone before them, yet the peasants that they own cannot even comprehend the extent their wealth preponderates.

The inner workings of the mind are not capable, no matter how determined they are, of understanding the true extent and wealth of our modern aristocracy.

Where small inequalities have historically caused mass discord and uprisings, modern aristocracy hide their wealth from public eyes to ensure nobody realizes the injustice that's been dealt upon them.

No heart can grieve over what the eye does not see.

Those like me are a rounding error in their calculations. Elites can pretend I don't exist — because for them, I might as well not be real; a few peasants can never assault a fortress manned by legions of obedient serfs.

It is senseless to force such an affair with inefficient substitutes — and the elites know that. They need not fear, so they don't.

At the same time, elites wealthy enough to give away UBI will inevitably attract the attention of ferocious — and potentially ingenious — conquerors.

And while a mediocre fortress can withstand even a strong assault, a fortress administered by ordinary bosses cannot withstand the assault of a superior great man on the other side.

UBI will be unprecedented, and will give rise to unprecedented great minds as a result. Wise elites will fortify their positions and dig deep ditches to avoid a popular uprising seeking to redistribute their hoarded wealth.

Should they fail to do that, they could be torn apart by the disgruntled masses who might one day realize just how shortchanged they will have been with the meagre UBI, while the elites continue to eat caviar and measure their status by comparing the size of their yachts.

Wise elites will entrench themselves. Complacent ones will be torn to shreds.

SIXTHLY, innovation will take a back seat. Conformity will be more required than it is today.

Dissent is already a bad thing; dissent ALWAYS equals punishment. No society is above it. State interests reign supreme — and with that, the interests of their overlord elites.

Slaves who have nothing — and should be the last willing defenders of the same systems that oppress them — happen to be elites' greatest, bravest defenders.

When slaves are given a stake — something they can point to and say, "Look! The government gave me free money! I live in the best place in the world!" — they will become fanatical defenders.

Not just ordinary defenders, like modern slaves. Not mediocre, fallible defenders who only fight as long as they calculate a favourable chance of success.

Modern people perform. They gladly chant and sing, and they scream and wail.

But do they do anything dangerous for their states? Of course not!

Future slaves will fight. Not like modern slaves who just perform their ideologies, then pack up their meagre belongings, only to go home to complain. Future slaves will be fanatics. Like a religious believer who has seen his favourite idol in a dream.

Nothing will shake them awake. Not at that point.

When conformity trumps originality, the result is modern society.

And the future society will be magnitudes worse; magnitudes more obedient, complacent, and self-destructive.

SEVENTHLY, historical innovation has upset the status quo for their then-elites.

Examples are legion.

Western example? When guns and statecraft became sophisticated, medieval aristocracy (knights) became obsolete and lost their significance. They became nobodies, merging with the peasantry and competing for scraps.

Religious example? When science and philosophy could freely express themselves, religious institutions became a joke among their peasant-slaves. Religious elites gradually became impoverished, and with that, their reign of terror was over.

Eastern example? When technology overwhelmed Japan with its unannounced arrival (1853), samurai were unable to withstand their own demise. They fought and bled, they pled and begged, but in the end, and for all their efforts, they survived as mere myths.

Modern elites might want to avoid that fate entirely. Technological and scientific stagnation means little if it helps preserve their hold on power.

No sacrifice is too great as long as it's someone else's sacrifice.

Even if humanity is forefeited.

Our elite overlords will see to it.

Dark Conclusion

It is my rock-ribbed conviction that UBI will be just a phase of a much darker, more oppressive age for humanity.

Humanity sees the carrot; they refuse to see the stick. They wish to taste the carrot. Self-deception rules them all.

He who rules the carrot, rules the masses lusting for it; a new age of techno-aristocracy is nigh. And the peasantry will welcome them with open arms.

It will be like lambs to the slaughter.